Dr Evans Duah, a Researcher, financial economist and chartered accountant, has confidently projected that none of the five New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential candidates will cross the 50+1 to secure an outright victory.
Speaking on Channel One TV’s The Point of View on Wednesday, January 28, Dr Evans Duah, however, stressed that the race remains competitive, but data shows only Ken Agyapong can cross 50+1.
According to Dr Evans Duah, his judgment is informed not only by empirical data but also by recent engagements on the ground.
He further disclosed that he engaged the middle belt and other regions last week to gauge the mood within the party ahead of primaries.
Dr Evans Duah explained, “A lot of people are missing the strategy and, if you ask me confidently, none of the five candidates will cross that 50+1 on Saturday. And if anyone does, it will be Hon. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong. I stand by this, and it is based on data”.
“What is happening on the ground is that, from a strategy and intelligence point of view, there is a lot of social media cosmetic campaigning going on,” he said
Earlier, Dr Evans Duah placed former Assin Central MP, Ken Agyapong, in a comfortable lead ahead of the NPP primaries on January 31.
Reports suggest the research spanned from August 2025 to early January 2026, which engaged delegates nationwide.
The Poll is said to have covered the 276 constituencies with 31,556 verified interviews.
The independent researcher puts Ken Agyapong at 52.59%, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia at 36.24%, Bryan Acheampong at 8.60%, Dr Adutwum at 2.05%, and Kwabena Agyapong at 0.52%.
Dr Evans Duah highlighted that Ken Agyapong’s lead stems from lead gain in regions like Eastern, Central, and Western, with Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s support waning outside the North.
However, Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has said he is willing to put his entire seven-year credibility as a pollster on the NPP presidential election.
The Pollster boldly stressed that Dr Bawumia will win without doubt, adding that he is ready to risk it.
According to Mussa Dankwah, he has been in polling for about seven years now, adding that all his major prediction has never been wrong.
He further disclosed that the only thing they got wrong in the 2024 elections were two elections in Takoradi and Sekondi.
Speaking on Asempa FM’s Ekosii Sen, Mussa Dankwah, when asked if he is ready to put his entire seven-year credibility as a pollster on the line in this NPP presidential election, stated, “ There was no more difficult election for me than Akwatia; we had only two polling cycles to make a prediction, and the trend wasn’t established. When there is no trend, everything is at risk.
We have tracked this poll for 5 good months, the trend is there, it does not lie, and the trend is still current. If you look at the trend that was used in 1992 during Kufuor’s time and Adu Boahen, you have left this world for a different world.
Those trends are out of date, and it was a reason why people got the last elections wrong. When you have current data, ignore the historical trend”.
He further explained the GlobalInfoAnalytics polls, “We did something we called the moving average, one month moving average. When you do a poll in September and October, you find the average between the two polls. The next month, you get another average. What moving average does is that when there is any new development, you will see it”.
“When asked if he was clear in his mind that Dr Bawumia is winning the election, and whether he will risk the consequences on his organisation, he stated, “Yes, I know the consequences, what else will I do? We have done our work; in the last month alone, we have interviewed 10,000 people. We have spoken to people randomly, and this is the voice of the people, and we are saying it is the voice of God.
This is science. Anywhere else in the world, they don’t fight the polls; they know the polls are done credibly”, Mussa Dankwah added.