Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has projected that former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia will win 14 out of the 16 regions in the NPP primaries scheduled for Saturday, January 31.
Speaking on Channel One TV’s The Point of View with Bernard Avle on Wednesday, January 28, Mussa Dankwah highlighted that Dr Bawumia will secure a decisive victory in the Ashanti Region.
Mussa Dankwah stated, “Yes, [Bawumia will win in 14 regions out of 16 regions].”
He further highlighted that available data points to a clear victory for the 2024 NPP flagbearer.
“All the areas we have looked at are pointing in one direction, and that direction is that Bawumia will win this Saturday’s election one-touch,” he stated.
Mussa Dankwah also detailed that Dr Bawumia’s vote is projected to gain between 54 and 60 per cent, factoring in a three per cent margin of error.
He explained, “Based on our model, his lowest score will be 54 per cent, which is the 57 per cent we are giving him minus the three per cent margin of error, or he could get up to 60 per cent”.
He attributed the confidence in the projection to the stability of the data. “I am very confident in Bawumia’s numbers because they are more stable in terms of variability. There is no noise in the data,” he added.
Futhermore Mussa Dankwah, in another interview on Asempa FM’s Ekosii Sen, said he is willing to put his entire seven-year credibility as a pollster on the NPP presidential election.
The Pollster boldly stressed that Dr Bawumia will win without doubt, adding that he is ready to risk it.
According to Mussa Dankwah, he has been in polling for about seven years now, adding that all his major prediction has never been wrong.
He further disclosed that the only thing they got wrong in the 2024 elections were two elections in Takoradi and Sekondi.
Speaking on Asempa FM’s Ekosii Sen, Mussa Dankwah, when asked if he is ready to put his entire seven-year credibility as a pollster on the line in this NPP presidential election, stated, “ There was no more difficult election for me than Akwatia; we had only two polling cycles to make a prediction, and the trend wasn’t established. When there is no trend, everything is at risk.
We have tracked this poll for 5 good months, the trend is there, it does not lie, and the trend is still current. If you look at the trend that was used in 1992 during Kufuor’s time and Adu Boahen, you have left this world for a different world.
Those trends are out of date, and it was a reason why people got the last elections wrong. When you have current data, ignore the historical trend”.
He further explained the GlobalInfoAnalytics polls, “We did something we called the moving average, one month moving average. When you do a poll in September and October, you find the average between the two polls. The next month, you get another average. What moving average does is that when there is any new development, you will see it”.
“When asked if he was clear in his mind that Dr Bawumia is winning the election, and whether he will risk the consequences on his organisation, he stated, “Yes, I know the consequences, what else will I do? We have done our work; in the last month alone, we have interviewed 10,000 people. We have spoken to people randomly, and this is the voice of the people, and we are saying it is the voice of God.
This is science. Anywhere else in the world, they don’t fight the polls; they know the polls are done credibly”, Mussa Dankwah added.