Osahen Alexander Afenyo-Markin, the Minority Leader, has said that the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) would lose more than 35 parliamentary seats if a general election were held today.
According to Afenyo-Markin, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) would regain its parliamentary majority in the 2028 elections and secure victory for Dr Mahamudu Bawumia in the presidential race.
On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Afenyo-Markin, addressing Parliament at the opening of the Third Meeting of the Second Session of the Ninth Parliament, noted that recent research findings suggested a decline in the NDC’s electoral fortunes.
He stated, “Mr Speaker, I want to tell my colleagues that just yesterday, research findings were published that clearly state that if elections were to be held today, the NDC will be losing over 35 seats”.
“So Mr Speaker, what it means is that if we press on, if we press on like we are doing, come 2028, we will overtake them and remain the majority and elect Dr Mahamadu Bawumia as the president of Ghana”, he added.
He further addressed the NDC’s organisational preparedness, “Mr Speaker, we are done with all our internal processes. We have a national chairman. They don’t have a national chairman. We are starting the process of selecting parliamentary candidates. They have not gotten anywhere at all”.
However, beyond the political contest, Afenyo-Markin criticised the Mahama government over unemployment, the cost of living, illegal mining, cocoa prices and the management of public resources.
“A 24-hour economy that cannot keep a single factory switched on. A 24-hour economy that cannot build a single market is not an economy. It is a hopeless slogan,” he said.
The minority leader’s comment follows Global InfoAnalytics has predicted that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) could lose 29 parliamentary seats in the 2028 general elections.
According to Global InfoAnalytics, its first parliamentary seat projection predicts that the NDC could lose 29 seats in the next parliamentary election.
The Global InfoAnalytics Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model estimates that the governing party could secure 154 seats, representing a decline from the 185 seats it won in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
However, despite the projection, the NDC is expected to retain its parliamentary majority if the estimates materialise.
On the other hand, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is projected to increase its representation from 88 seats in 2024 to 100 in the next election, potentially gaining 12 additional seats.
Also, Global InfoAnalytics left 22 constituencies without definite projections. Twenty of these have been classified as “not disclosed”, while the remaining two are categorised as toss-ups.
In the regional breakdown of the 20 undisclosed constituencies, the Eastern Region was at the top with five seats, followed by the Ashanti Region with four and the Western Region with three.
The Upper East Region accounts for two undisclosed seats, while Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North and Bono each have one.
The two constituencies classified as toss-ups are located in the Ashanti and Bono regions, with their projected outcomes remaining uncertain.
However, in percentage terms, the NDC is expected to capture 55.8 per cent of parliamentary seats, while the NPP is projected to secure 36.2 per cent, with the 20 undisclosed constituencies representing 7.2 per cent of the total seats, with the two toss-up constituencies accounting for the remaining 0.7 per cent.
The projections point to a potentially reduced parliamentary majority for the NDC in 2028, with a slight improvement in the NPP’s representation compared to their 2024 performance.
Meanwhile, the figures are estimates generated by Global InfoAnalytics’ MRP model and should not be regarded as a definitive outcome of the 2028 elections.
Also, Global InfoAnalytics has not revealed the projected party preferences in the 20 undisclosed constituencies, while the two toss-up seats remain uncertain.
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